Social Media is mired in a massive hype cycle

“Signal to Noise” refers to the ratio between the desired signal – music for example – to noise like static and hiss.  On your iPod, you want more signal and less noise.

And according Brian Roy, president and founder of Cosinity a firm creating communications applications Social Media is suffering from a lot of noise.

He suggests that some of this noise is attributable to the two groups who benefit: Marketers and the Monitors.

• Marketers – looking for a more cost-effective way to achieve “reach”, the estimated number of the potential customers it is possible to reach through a an advertising medium or a promotional campaign
• Monitors – listening for statements of interest in a brand and which has spawned an industry of social media metrics and buzz monitoring

Roy believes that social media is not really so much “new” as much as an extension of the fundamental human desire to communicate with one other.  As such, it is best seen as a technological extension and enablement of that desire.  Nothing more.  And at some point, the hype will by necessity be replaced by a focus on financial fundamentals.

7 Predictions for the Future of Social Media Marketing

In a well reasoned argument, Roy offers up seven predictions:

1. Social Media will NOT change corporate culture, but corporate culture will change the heck out of Social Media.
2. When Social Media fails to deliver on the hype, experts will blame companies for “doing it wrong”.
3. Deriving real benefit from Social Media will be hard – there is no “purple pill”.  (funny metaphor considering he doesn’t work in pharma)
4. Companies will focus on the “low hanging fruit” – They will do what has immediate, tangible benefit.
5. Social Media will become a Customer Service/Support mechanism – and you won’t like it one bit.
6. Social Media usage will become ubiquitous -  [remember] when almost no one used email…
7. Every company will make use of Social Media – Not as a change agent, but as a mechanism to do what they already need to do better and cheaper.

What Would J.P. Do?

All of this reminds me of the quote attributed to J.P. Morgan:

“when even the shoeshine boys are offering stock tips, it’s time to get out.”

I don’t think it’s time to get out.  But I do think it’s time to hold projects accountable for revenue generation. Pharmaceutical, biotech and device marketers charged with online communications might consider separating the hype from noise by asking themselves these questions:

• Do customers really want to see us on Facebook?  It depends upon the therapeutic category.
• Is twittering going to drive sales?  Probably not.  Will monitoring what others are saying about your brand help protect you from Motrin-Mom-Madness?  Yes.
• Can you start small and grow the project based upon favorable results?  Absolutely.

Health care reform is imminent.  Follow the 80/20 rule and focus on the fundamentals.